Just 36% of Madagascar has access to electricity, only 23% of the country is supplied by it’s national grid [1].
Last month, power and water outages led to civil unrest, and the fall of the Madagascan government – we have discussed how failures in policy since 2009 have led to Madagascar’s overreliance on imported coal, which has jeopordised energy security.
“This is a policy failure – but, also a market failure“
In 2008/09, plans were well underway for the Ambatovy Cobalt and Nickel mine to be developed in Madagascar – supported by the European Investment Bank – however confidence was damaged during the 2009 Coup. While the project had been projected to start production in 2011 [2], commercial mining did not begin until 2014.
Furthermore, the government of Madagascar owns no stake in the Ambatovy Mine – the state’s financial interest is limited to taxes and local expediture, accounting for 44 Million USD (2022) 340 Million USD (2023/4) respectively [3]. There are suggestions that Japan’s Sumitomo Corperation have been looking to sell their 54.18% share in the mine since late 2024 [4].
These energy security minerals are processed, and shipped off to Japan and South Korea – while domestically, Madagascan Energy Security is in crisis.
Ready for the kicker?
Ambatovy run operations on their own diesel generators; and import their own coal, to fuel their own dedicated power plant [5]. They are completely isolated from the failings of the national grid – and government failings.
(Heathrow, are you taking notes?)
So why has the former government failed to secure, and invest in energy production? Random statistic time?
Madagascar only exploit 4% of their 7800 MW hyrdroelectic power potential [1]
Now, it would be easy to blame corruption, embezzlement, or incompetence – but the true cause, is systemic paralysis, smoke and mirrors.
Leading up to the 2023 “election”, Madagascan politics were dominated by the Presidental Projects.
The Antananarivo Cable Car, a low-carbon, french-loan-funded €152 million vanity project – designed to allieveiate congestion in the capital city. We can add a little perspective here: in 2023, Opdenergy secured €128 million to finance five solar plants in Spain, with a combined output of 216 megawatts – over half of what Madagascar currently produces.
So why is there systemic paralysis? Why could that support not go into energy infrastructure? The answer is in two parts:
JIRAMA (the state owned energy and water agency) requires intervention or replacement. Replacing the national grid with smaller, privately funded, renewable power grids might be a way forward.
The second part is really quite stupid. Energy security, upgrading infrastructure, building resilience or contingency… isn’t sexy. It’s sensible.
It doesn’t turn heads, or win votes – until it fails: then everyone notices.
Join us in Part 3, to discuss the “resource curse” – and what it really is…
[1] African Development Bank Group (2025) Madagascar Energy Factsheet. Available at:
https://www.afdb.org/en/mission-300-africa-energy-summit/accelerating-africas-energy-transition/madagascar-energy-factsheet
[2] US Department of State, (2011) 2011 Investment Climate Statement – Madagascar. Available at:
https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ics/2011/157316.htm
[3] Randriamamonjy, I (2023) ‘Mining Royalties – Ambatovy pays 198 billion ariary’, L’Express de Madagascar. Available at:
https://lexpress.mg/11/07/2023/redevances-minieres-ambatovy-verse-198-milliards-ariary/
[4] Karr, L (2025) What the Madagascar Coup Means for Africa, Mining and Competition in the Indian Ocean: Africa File Special Edition. Critical Threats. Available at:
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/what-the-madagascar-coup-means-for-africa-mining-and-competition-in-the-indian-ocean-africa-file-special-edition#_edn10c13ff6c3cbf2b6d22cca917b0ac5ac39
[5] Ambatovy (2006) Environmental Assessment Ambatovy Project Summary. Available at:
https://ambatovy.com.en/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/volume-A-english.pdf
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